Verdant Equanim·Nebraska Stress Atlas·Research Library v1.1 · updated 2026-11-06

Research Library

The Research Library is the evidence behind the HeadWater chronic stress survey and the Nebraska Stress Atlas. It exists so that a county, a hospital, a clinic or a health department writing a grant can cite the science in one click, and so that anyone can check what HeadWater measures against the studies that have held up. Each category matches a section of the survey or a layer of the Atlas. Each entry names who did the work, what they found, how many people were studied, and links to the publisher's record, the PubMed record and the free full text where one exists.

Pick a role and the shelves below reorder to what that role usually needs first. The entries do not change. Individuals never need a code; everything public is yours.

The standard for what goes in
  1. A finding is included when it has been replicated in at least two independent populations, or comes from a meta-analysis or a cohort of tens of thousands, and has held for at least ten years. Federal surveillance data (BRFSS, Census, vital statistics) is included as the source for a measure itself.
  2. Primary sources only: the original study or the federal record, never a news story or a vendor summary. Systematic reviews and meta-analyses rank above single studies.
  3. Every entry carries a DOI or PubMed ID, the sample size, the population, one plain sentence on what it shows, and the date it was last checked. If the one sentence cannot be written from the record, the entry is not included.
  4. Entries report what was measured. They do not report why. Where the study's own authors say an effect is small, the entry says so.
  5. The bar is set by the evidence on the evidence: Ioannidis (2005) on why most published findings are false, and the 2015 Reproducibility Project, which replicated 36 of 100 psychology findings. Both are in the Methods shelf.
  6. Nothing is added to pad a category. A category with two entries that have stood for twenty years is complete.

Review: Pending: data governance board review. Once a year, and whenever a source is added or retired.

Cite HeadWater and the Atlas

SurveyVerdant Equanim, LLC. (2026). HeadWater chronic stress survey, version 2 (Nebraska Under Stress: Community Wellbeing Survey, Wave 2). Lincoln, Nebraska. https://vereq.co
AtlasVerdant Equanim, LLC. (2026). Nebraska Stress Atlas: county estimates from CDC PLACES and County Health Rankings with HeadWater survey layers. Lincoln, Nebraska. https://vereq.co/atlas (data vintages shown on the page)
ReliabilityReliability of HeadWater version 1 subscales, March 2026 staff test (n = 86): Stability .79 (n = 64), Support .77 (n = 53), Sleep .65 (n = 52). Reported by subscale; rural validation is in progress.

Chronic stress and chronic disease

5 sources · Whole instrument; HeadWater scales

The spine of the platform: the physiology of long-running stress and the cohort evidence tying it to heart disease and early death. The honest reading of this shelf is that adult stress on its own is a modest risk factor, far smaller than smoking, and matters most as a trigger in people who already have disease, while stress in childhood and the social and economic conditions behind stress carry more weight. That is why HeadWater asks about early life, money, sleep and the people around you rather than only 'are you stressed'.

Rockefeller University (McEwen)
Protective and damaging effects of stress mediators
Review, New England Journal of Medicine · 1998 · Review · General

Sets out allostatic load: the stress hormones that protect the body in the short run damage it when activation is sustained. The physiological frame behind the whole platform.

University of Montreal and Rockefeller University (Juster, McEwen, Lupien)
Allostatic load biomarkers of chronic stress and impact on health and cognition
Review · 2010 · Review of allostatic load studies · General

Indexes combining neuroendocrine, immune, metabolic and cardiovascular markers predict illness and death beyond what standard clinical measures predict.

Carnegie Mellon University (Cohen)
Psychological stress and disease
Commentary, JAMA · 2007 · Commentary · General

Summarizes the evidence that chronic stress contributes to depression, cardiovascular disease and the course of HIV and cancer, through both behavior and biology. Short and widely cited; a starting point, not a data paper.

University College London (Steptoe, Kivimäki)
Stress and cardiovascular disease
Review, Nature Reviews Cardiology · 2012 · Review of cohort evidence · Adults

Chronic stress predicts first coronary events; work stress, social isolation and loneliness each raise the risk; acute stress triggers events in people with advanced atherosclerosis.

University College London (Kivimäki, Steptoe)
Effects of stress on the development and progression of cardiovascular disease
Review, Nature Reviews Cardiology · 2018 · Pooled mega-cohorts · Adults

Severe childhood stress raises the risk of multiple adult chronic conditions. Adult stress effects are, in the authors' words, generally less marked than childhood stress and classic risk factors such as smoking, blood pressure and cholesterol; adult stress matters most as a trigger in people with existing plaque and as a determinant of outcome in those with existing disease.

Money, work and health

4 sources · Money & Work section

Income, job security and job strain and their measured relationship to length and quality of life. The gradient runs through the whole income range, not only at the poverty line.

Stanford, MIT and Harvard (Chetty, Cutler and colleagues) with the US Treasury
The Association Between Income and Life Expectancy in the United States, 2001-2014
Cohort, JAMA · 2016 · 1.4 billion person-years from tax records, 2001 to 2014 · US adults aged 40 to 76

Men in the top 1 percent of income lived 14.6 years longer than men in the bottom 1 percent; women, 10.1 years. The gap widened over the period. Among low-income people, life expectancy varied by about 4.5 years across local areas, and that variation tracked smoking and other health behaviors, not access to medical care, income inequality or local labor markets.

University College London (Marmot)
Health inequalities among British civil servants: the Whitehall II study
Cohort, Lancet · 1991 · 10,314 British civil servants aged 35 to 55 · Employed adults

Twenty years after the first Whitehall study, lower employment grade still meant more angina, more ECG evidence of ischemia, more chronic bronchitis, worse self-rated health, more smoking, less exercise, less job control and less social support. The gradient ran through every grade, not only the bottom.

University of California San Francisco and colleagues (Adler)
Socioeconomic status and health. The challenge of the gradient
Review, American Psychologist · 1994 · Review · General

Socioeconomic status is associated with health at every level, not only below the poverty line, which means the mechanisms have to work across the whole range.

IPD-Work Consortium, University College London (Kivimäki)
Job strain as a risk factor for coronary heart disease: a collaborative meta-analysis of individual participant data
Individual participant meta-analysis, Lancet · 2012 · 197,473 employees in 13 European cohorts; 2,358 coronary events · Working adults without heart disease at baseline

Job strain raised the risk of a first coronary event by 23 percent after adjustment, with a population attributable risk of 3.4 percent. The authors state the effect is much smaller than standard risk factors such as smoking.

Sleep

4 sources · Stress & Sleep section; CDC PLACES short sleep; County Health Rankings insufficient sleep

Three independent meta-analyses, covering more than five million people, give the same answer on short sleep and death, diabetes and obesity.

University of Warwick (Cappuccio)
Sleep duration and all-cause mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies
Meta-analysis, Sleep · 2010 · 16 studies, 27 cohorts, 1,382,999 people, 112,566 deaths · Adults, follow-up 4 to 25 years

Short sleep raised the risk of death by 12 percent; long sleep by 30 percent. No publication bias found.

Oita University, Nihon University and Kyoto University (Itani, Kaneita)
Short sleep duration and health outcomes: a systematic review, meta-analysis, and meta-regression
Meta-analysis, Sleep Medicine · 2017 · 153 studies, 5,172,710 people · Adults, follow-up one year or more

Short sleep raised mortality 12 percent, diabetes 37 percent, hypertension 17 percent, cardiovascular disease 16 percent, coronary heart disease 26 percent and obesity 38 percent. Mortality rose in a straight line below six hours.

University of Warwick (Cappuccio)
Quantity and quality of sleep and incidence of type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis
Meta-analysis, Diabetes Care · 2010 · 10 studies, 13 cohorts, 107,756 people, 3,586 new cases · Adults, follow-up 4 to 32 years

Short sleep raised new type 2 diabetes 28 percent; trouble falling asleep, 57 percent; trouble staying asleep, 84 percent. Quality of sleep predicted diabetes as strongly as quantity.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
About Sleep
Federal definition · 2024 · Federal guidance · US adults

Defines the adult recommendation of seven or more hours and the short-sleep measure used in PLACES.

Mood and anxiety

3 sources · Feelings section; CDC PLACES frequent mental distress and depression

Where HeadWater's mood items come from and how well two-item screens perform. This shelf documents the instruments more than the disease.

Indiana University and Columbia University (Kroenke, Spitzer, Williams)
The Patient Health Questionnaire-2: validity of a two-item depression screener
Instrument validation, Medical Care · 2003 · 6,000 patients in 15 clinics; 580 interviewed by a mental health professional · Primary care and obstetrics patients

The two-item PHQ-2 (depressed mood and loss of interest over two weeks) at a score of 3 or more detected major depression with 83 percent sensitivity and 92 percent specificity. HeadWater's interest and mood items follow this form.

Indiana University and Columbia University (Kroenke, Spitzer, Williams)
Anxiety disorders in primary care: prevalence, impairment, comorbidity, and detection
Instrument validation, Annals of Internal Medicine · 2007 · 965 patients in 15 US primary care clinics · Adult primary care patients

One in five patients had an anxiety disorder; 41 percent of them were receiving no treatment. The two core GAD items (nervous or on edge; unable to stop worrying) screened well for all four anxiety disorders studied. HeadWater's anxiety item follows this form.

Carnegie Mellon University and University of Oregon (Cohen, Kamarck, Mermelstein)
A global measure of perceived stress
Instrument, Journal of Health and Social Behavior · 1983 · Original scale development · College and community samples

The Perceived Stress Scale, the most used measure of how uncontrollable and overloaded people find their lives. HeadWater's stress, overwhelm and control items are in its family.

Social connection and loneliness

3 sources · People Around You section; CDC PLACES social and emotional support, loneliness

Two meta-analyses from the same group a decade apart, covering more than 300,000 people, put the effect of social connection on survival in the same range as established medical risk factors.

Brigham Young University (Holt-Lunstad, Smith, Layton)
Social relationships and mortality risk: a meta-analytic review
Meta-analysis, PLoS Medicine · 2010 · 148 studies, 308,849 people · Adults, all ages and health states

People with stronger social relationships had 50 percent higher odds of survival over the follow-up period, consistent across age, sex, initial health and cause of death. The effect was strongest for measures of social integration and weakest for simply living with others.

Brigham Young University (Holt-Lunstad and colleagues)
Loneliness and social isolation as risk factors for mortality: a meta-analytic review
Meta-analysis, Perspectives on Psychological Science · 2015 · 70 studies, 3.4 million people · Adults

After controlling for confounders, social isolation raised the likelihood of death 29 percent, loneliness 26 percent and living alone 32 percent. Effects were larger in samples under age 65.

St. Luke's and Mount Sinai, New York (Cohen, Bavishi, Rozanski)
Purpose in Life and Its Relationship to All-Cause Mortality and Cardiovascular Events: A Meta-Analysis
Meta-analysis, Psychosomatic Medicine · 2016 · 10 prospective studies, 136,265 people · Adults

A higher sense of purpose in life was associated with 17 percent lower all-cause mortality and 17 percent fewer cardiovascular events, consistent across countries, questionnaires and age. Source for HeadWater's meaning item.

Childhood adversity

16 sources · Early Life section

The ACE count as a whole, then each experience HeadWater asks about, one shelf per item: emotional and physical abuse and neglect, sexual abuse, seeing violence at home, drug or alcohol use in the home, mental illness or a suicide attempt in the household, parents separated or divorced, and a household member in jail or prison. Meta-analyses and national register cohorts only. Where an effect is small, the entry says so; the divorce and incarceration effects are real and small, the abuse and suicide effects are large.

The ACE count as a whole

Kaiser Permanente and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Felitti, Anda)
Relationship of childhood abuse and household dysfunction to many of the leading causes of death in adults. The Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACE) Study
Cohort, American Journal of Preventive Medicine · 1998 · 9,508 adults (70.5 percent response) at a large HMO · Insured US adults

Compared with none, four or more categories of childhood abuse or household dysfunction meant 4 to 12 times the risk of alcoholism, drug abuse, depression and suicide attempt; 2 to 4 times the risk of smoking and poor self-rated health; and a graded rise in heart disease, cancer, lung disease, fractures and liver disease. Source of HeadWater's childhood experiences item.

Public Health Wales and Liverpool John Moores University (Hughes, Bellis) with the World Health Organization
The effect of multiple adverse childhood experiences on health: a systematic review and meta-analysis
Meta-analysis, Lancet Public Health · 2017 · 37 studies, 253,719 people · Adults in general populations

Four or more ACEs raised every health outcome studied: weak to modest for inactivity, obesity and diabetes; moderate for smoking, heavy drinking, cancer, heart disease and respiratory disease; strong for mental illness and problem drinking; strongest, over sevenfold, for problem drug use and interpersonal and self-directed violence.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
About Adverse Childhood Experiences
Federal summary · 2024 · Federal summary · US adults

CDC's definition of ACEs and the national prevalence figures from BRFSS.

All forms of maltreatment

University College London, John Jay College, University of Nottingham, University of Otago, Cardiff, Karolinska (Gilbert, Widom, Fergusson)
Burden and consequences of child maltreatment in high-income countries
Review, Lancet · 2009 · Review of high-income country evidence · Children and adults in high-income countries

Each year about 4 to 16 percent of children are physically abused and one in ten is neglected or psychologically abused; official substantiated rates capture less than a tenth of this. Maltreatment has lasting effects on mental health, drug and alcohol misuse, obesity and criminal behavior. Neglect is at least as damaging in the long term as physical or sexual abuse and has received the least attention.

Emotional abuse, physical abuse, neglect

University of Queensland and the World Health Organization (Norman, Vos)
The long-term health consequences of child physical abuse, emotional abuse, and neglect: a systematic review and meta-analysis
Meta-analysis, PLoS Medicine · 2012 · 124 studies · Children followed into adulthood

Compared with none: emotional abuse tripled the odds of depression (3.06) and suicide attempts (3.37); physical abuse raised depression 54 percent, drug use 92 percent and suicide attempts 3.4-fold; neglect doubled depression (2.11) and raised suicide attempts 95 percent. Evidence for chronic physical disease was suggestive, not confirmed.

Sexual abuse

Mayo Clinic (Chen, Murad)
Sexual abuse and lifetime diagnosis of psychiatric disorders: systematic review and meta-analysis
Meta-analysis, Mayo Clinic Proceedings · 2010 · 37 studies, 3,162,318 people · Any age, any population

A history of sexual abuse was associated with roughly triple the odds of anxiety disorder (3.09), 2.7 times depression and eating disorders, 2.3 times PTSD and 4.1 times suicide attempts, regardless of the victim's sex or age at the abuse. No association with schizophrenia.

Leiden University (Stoltenborgh, van IJzendoorn, Bakermans-Kranenburg)
A global perspective on child sexual abuse: meta-analysis of prevalence around the world
Meta-analysis of prevalence, Child Maltreatment · 2011 · 217 publications, 331 samples, 9,911,748 people · Worldwide

Self-reported childhood sexual abuse: 12.7 percent overall, 18 percent of women and 7.6 percent of men. Informant studies find about one thirtieth of that, which shows how much depends on who is asked. Context for HeadWater's anonymous self-report design.

Saw violence at home

University of Memphis (Kitzmann)
Child witnesses to domestic violence: a meta-analytic review
Meta-analysis, Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · 2003 · 118 studies · Children exposed to violence between parents

Children who witnessed violence between their parents had significantly worse outcomes than children who did not (d = 0.40) and than children from verbally aggressive homes, and outcomes not significantly different from children who were themselves physically abused. Effects were similar across outcome types, slightly larger for preschoolers.

Southern Methodist University (Vu, Jouriles, McDonald)
Children's exposure to intimate partner violence: A meta-analysis of longitudinal associations with child adjustment problems
Meta-analysis of longitudinal studies, Clinical Psychology Review · 2016 · 74 longitudinal studies · Children exposed to intimate partner violence

Exposure to intimate partner violence predicted later behavior and emotional problems, and the association grew stronger over time. Exposure at younger ages predicted more behavior problems. Child sex did not change the result.

Drug or alcohol use in the home

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Kaiser Permanente (Anda, Felitti)
Adverse childhood experiences, alcoholic parents, and later risk of alcoholism and depression
Cohort, Psychiatric Services · 2002 · 9,346 adults in the ACE Study · Insured US adults

One in five grew up with a parent who abused alcohol, and those homes carried far more of the other adverse experiences. Adult alcoholism was higher among children of alcoholics at every ACE count. Adult depression among children of alcoholics was explained by the other adverse experiences in those homes, not by the parental drinking itself.

Mental illness or suicide attempt in the household

Dalhousie University (Rasic, Uher)
Risk of mental illness in offspring of parents with schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and major depressive disorder: a meta-analysis of family high-risk studies
Meta-analysis, Schizophrenia Bulletin · 2014 · 33 family high-risk studies; 3,863 offspring of parents with severe mental illness and 3,158 controls · Children of parents with schizophrenia, bipolar disorder or major depression

One third of children of a parent with severe mental illness developed a severe mental illness themselves by adulthood, two and a half times the control rate, and the risk extended beyond the parent's own disorder to other types.

University of Bristol and Norwegian University of Science and Technology (Geulayov, Gunnell)
The association of parental fatal and non-fatal suicidal behaviour with offspring suicidal behaviour and depression: a systematic review and meta-analysis
Meta-analysis, Psychological Medicine · 2012 · 28 articles, 14 in the meta-analysis · Children of parents who died by or attempted suicide

After confounders, children of a parent who died by suicide were about twice as likely to die by suicide (adjusted OR 1.94), and children of a parent who attempted suicide were about twice as likely to attempt it (1.95). Maternal suicidal behavior and younger age at exposure carried larger effects; sons and daughters did not differ.

University of Manchester and Aarhus University (Carr, Webb)
Self-harm and violent criminality linked with parental death during childhood
National register cohort, Psychological Medicine · 2020 · All Danish residents born 1970 to 2000 · Children who lost a parent before age 15

Parental death in childhood raised later hospital-treated self-harm and violent crime, after adjusting for relatives' mental illness. Losing both parents, unnatural causes of death, and death during the preschool years carried the largest increases. Not a HeadWater item on its own; included because suicide in the home is also a parental death.

Parents separated or divorced

University of Nebraska-Lincoln (Amato, Keith)
Parental divorce and the well-being of children: a meta-analysis
Meta-analysis, Psychological Bulletin · 1991 · 92 studies · Children of divorced versus continuously married parents

Children of divorce scored lower across well-being measures, with a median effect of 0.14 of a standard deviation, a small effect. The most consistent support was for family conflict, not parental absence or lost income, as the reason.

Pennsylvania State University (Amato)
Children of divorce in the 1990s: an update of the Amato and Keith (1991) meta-analysis
Meta-analysis update, Journal of Family Psychology · 2001 · 67 studies from the 1990s · Children of divorced versus continuously married parents

The same gaps in achievement, conduct, adjustment, self-concept and social relations held a decade later. The gap narrowed in the 1980s and widened again in the 1990s. Small effects, consistent across forty years of studies.

Household member in jail or prison

University of Cambridge (Murray, Farrington)
Children's antisocial behavior, mental health, drug use, and educational performance after parental incarceration: a systematic review and meta-analysis
Meta-analysis, Psychological Bulletin · 2012 · 40 studies; 7,374 children with incarcerated parents and 37,325 comparison children · Children of incarcerated parents

In the most rigorous studies, parental incarceration was associated with about 10 percent higher risk of antisocial behavior (OR 1.4) after accounting for parental criminality, but not with mental health problems, drug use or poor school performance. The authors rate much of the underlying research as poor quality. An honest entry: the effect is real and smaller than often claimed.

Family history: famine, war and displacement evidence developing

2 sources · Family History section

Evidence developing. The Dutch Hunger Winter cohort is the one solid anchor: prenatal famine is consistently tied to adult body size, diabetes and schizophrenia; other outcomes are less robust and the proposed epigenetic mechanism is not settled. This shelf stays small on purpose.

University of Amsterdam (Roseboom)
The Dutch famine and its long-term consequences for adult health
Cohort, Early Human Development · 2006 · 2,414 people born around the Dutch famine of 1944 to 1945 · Dutch adults

Famine exposure in the womb was associated with glucose intolerance at every stage of gestation; early-gestation exposure with more coronary heart disease, worse lipids, disturbed clotting, higher stress responsiveness, more obesity and, in women, more breast cancer. Effects depended on timing.

Columbia University and Emory University (Lumey, Stein, Susser)
Prenatal famine and adult health
Review, Annual Review of Public Health · 2011 · Review of famine cohorts · Adults exposed to famine before birth

Across famine studies, prenatal famine is consistently tied to adult body size, diabetes and schizophrenia. For other outcomes the findings are less robust, and the epigenetic mechanism remains a hypothesis. This is why the shelf is labeled evidence developing.

Food security and diet

3 sources · Food section; CDC PLACES food insecurity; County Health Rankings food measures

Food insecurity and clinical disease, and the burden of poor diet. The diabetes link is weaker than often claimed and the entries say so.

University of Illinois and University of Kentucky (Gundersen, Ziliak)
Food Insecurity And Health Outcomes
Review, Health Affairs · 2015 · Review of US studies · US children, adults and seniors

Food insecurity is consistently associated with worse health after confounders are controlled: food-insecure children at least twice as likely to be in fair or poor health; food-insecure seniors with limitations comparable to food-secure seniors fourteen years older.

University of California San Francisco (Seligman, Laraia, Kushel)
Food insecurity is associated with chronic disease among low-income NHANES participants
Cohort, Journal of Nutrition · 2010 · 5,094 low-income adults aged 18 to 65, NHANES 1999 to 2004 · Low-income US adults

Food insecurity was associated with 20 percent higher hypertension and 30 percent higher hyperlipidemia. The association with diabetes was not statistically significant except under a strict definition of food insecurity.

Global Burden of Disease Diet Collaborators, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Health effects of dietary risks in 195 countries, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Comparative risk assessment, Lancet · 2019 · 195 countries, 1990 to 2017 · Adults 25 and older worldwide

Eleven million deaths in 2017 were attributable to diet, led by high sodium, low whole grains and low fruit. Dietary data were uneven across countries and the authors flag the resulting uncertainty.

Physical activity

2 sources · Health & Environment section; CDC PLACES and County Health Rankings inactivity

The burden of inactivity, estimated conservatively.

Harvard Medical School and the Lancet Physical Activity Series Working Group (Lee, Blair)
Effect of physical inactivity on major non-communicable diseases worldwide: an analysis of burden of disease and life expectancy
Burden analysis, Lancet · 2012 · Population attributable fractions by country, 2008 · Adults worldwide

Using conservative assumptions, inactivity accounts for 6 percent of coronary heart disease, 7 percent of type 2 diabetes, 10 percent of breast and colon cancer and 9 percent of premature deaths, about 5.3 million deaths in 2008.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Benefits of Physical Activity
Federal summary · 2024 · Federal summary · US adults

CDC's summary of the health benefits of physical activity and the adult guideline of 150 minutes a week of moderate activity.

Environment

2 sources · Health & Environment section; County Health Rankings air and water measures

Fine particulate air pollution and death, including below current national standards.

Brigham Young University and Harvard School of Public Health (Pope, Dockery)
Health effects of fine particulate air pollution: lines that connect
Critical review, Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association · 2006 · Review of research since 1997 · General

A comprehensive evaluation of six lines of research gives persuasive evidence that fine particulate air pollution harms cardiopulmonary health, at different time scales of exposure.

Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health (Di, Dominici, Schwartz)
Air Pollution and Mortality in the Medicare Population
Cohort, New England Journal of Medicine · 2017 · 60,925,443 Medicare beneficiaries, 460 million person-years, 2000 to 2012 · US adults 65 and older

Each 10 micrograms per cubic meter of fine particulate matter raised all-cause mortality 7.3 percent, and 13.6 percent when exposure was already below the national standard. Effects were larger for men, Black beneficiaries and people eligible for Medicaid.

Substance use

3 sources · Substance Use section; CDC PLACES smoking; County Health Rankings smoking and excessive drinking

Tobacco and alcohol burden from federal and global sources, and the source of HeadWater's drinking item.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Cigarette Smoking
Federal summary · 2024 · Federal summary · US adults

CDC's summary of smoking prevalence and the diseases it causes, drawing on the Surgeon General's reports.

Global Burden of Disease Alcohol Collaborators, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
Comparative risk assessment, Lancet · 2018 · 694 data sources and 592 studies; 195 countries, 1990 to 2016 · Ages 15 and older worldwide

Alcohol was the seventh leading risk factor for death in 2016 and the leading risk factor for ages 15 to 49. In this analysis the level of consumption that minimized health loss was zero drinks a week. Later analyses debate the low-dose estimate; the overall burden finding stands.

VA Puget Sound and University of Washington (Bush, Bradley)
The AUDIT alcohol consumption questions (AUDIT-C): an effective brief screening test for problem drinking
Instrument validation, Archives of Internal Medicine · 1998 · 243 male veterans in three VA clinics · Male primary care patients

The three AUDIT-C consumption questions detected heavy drinking as well as the full ten-item AUDIT. Small and male-only; included as the source of HeadWater's drinking item, not as evidence about drinking.

Access to help

2 sources · Community Needs section; County Health Rankings provider rates and uninsured

How much mental health need goes untreated, and the standard model of what determines whether people get care.

Harvard Medical School (Kessler)
Prevalence and treatment of mental disorders, 1990 to 2003
Repeated national survey, New England Journal of Medicine · 2005 · 5,388 interviews (1990 to 1992) and 4,319 (2001 to 2003), National Comorbidity Survey · US adults aged 18 to 54

About three in ten adults had a mental disorder in the past year in both decades. Treatment rose from 20 percent to 33 percent of those with a disorder, which means most people with a disorder still received no treatment.

University of California Los Angeles (Andersen)
Revisiting the behavioral model and access to medical care: does it matter?
Model review, Journal of Health and Social Behavior · 1995 · Conceptual model · General

The Behavioral Model of Health Services Use: whether people get care depends on predisposing factors, enabling resources and need. The standard frame for HeadWater's community needs and confidence items.

Differences by race, sex, income and disability

4 sources · About You section; County Health Rankings income and demographic measures

Measured differences only, from federal vital statistics and large cohorts. Entries report the difference and the population it was measured in. They do not report why; that is for the reader, the county and the board.

National Center for Health Statistics (Murphy, Kochanek, Xu, Arias)
Mortality in the United States, 2023 (NCHS Data Brief 521)
Federal vital statistics · 2024 · All US deaths, 2023 · US population

Life expectancy and age-adjusted death rates by race, ethnicity and sex for 2023, from the National Vital Statistics System. The current federal reference for differences in length of life.

National Center for Health Statistics (Kochanek, Arias, Anderson)
How did cause of death contribute to racial differences in life expectancy in the United States in 2010?
Federal vital statistics, NCHS Data Brief · 2013 · All US deaths, 2010 · US population

In 2010 life expectancy for the Black population was 3.8 years lower than for the White population (4.7 years for males, 3.3 for females), accounted for by higher death rates from heart disease, cancer, homicide, diabetes, stroke and perinatal conditions. Kept for the cause-of-death breakdown; the 2023 brief carries the current figures.

Stanford, MIT and Harvard (Chetty, Cutler and colleagues) with the US Treasury
The Association Between Income and Life Expectancy in the United States, 2001-2014
Cohort, JAMA · 2016 · 1.4 billion person-years from tax records · US adults aged 40 to 76

The income gap in life expectancy, 14.6 years for men and 10.1 for women between the top and bottom 1 percent, with local variation tied to health behaviors.

National Institutes of Health and the Administration for Community Living (Krahn, Walker, Correa-De-Araujo)
Persons with disabilities as an unrecognized health disparity population
Review and position paper, American Journal of Public Health · 2015 · Review · US adults with significant disabilities, more than 12 percent of the population

Summarizes documented differences in health outcomes for people with disabilities and argues they meet the criteria for a health disparity population. Included for the documented differences; the policy recommendations are the authors' own.

Methods and data sources

7 sources · The Atlas itself

How the public numbers on the Atlas are made, how HeadWater's reliability is reported, and the two papers that set this library's bar.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
PLACES: Local Data for Better Health, methodology
Federal methods · 2025 · All US counties, places, tracts and ZIP code areas · US adults

How the CDC PLACES county estimates on the Atlas are made: small area estimation from BRFSS responses, Census population data and ACS characteristics. The estimates are modeled, not direct counts.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
PLACES measure definitions
Federal definitions · 2025 · Definitions · US adults

The exact wording of each PLACES measure on the Atlas, including the BRFSS question behind it.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System
Federal survey · 2025 · About 400,000 adult interviews a year · US adults

The telephone survey behind both PLACES and the County Health Rankings behavior and health measures.

University of Wisconsin Population Health Institute (Remington, Catlin, Gennuso)
The County Health Rankings: rationale and methods
Methods paper, Population Health Metrics · 2015 · Over 3,000 US counties · US counties

How the County Health Rankings are built: more than 30 county measures from national sources, z-scored, weighted and summed within each state. The authors note two-fold differences between the least and most healthy counties in a state and encourage users to check local data.

County Health Rankings and Roadmaps, University of Wisconsin Population Health Institute
2025 County Health Rankings Nebraska data
Data release · 2025 · 93 Nebraska counties · Nebraska

The 2025 Nebraska data file (version 3) from which the Atlas takes 34 measures.

University of Ioannina and Tufts (Ioannidis)
Why most published research findings are false
Essay, PLoS Medicine · 2005 · Simulation and argument · Research in general

A research finding is less likely to be true when studies are small, effects are small, many relationships are tested, designs are flexible and there is financial or other interest. The reason this library requires replication and size.

Open Science Collaboration (270 contributors)
Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science
Replication study, Science · 2015 · 100 published psychology studies replicated with high-powered designs · Psychology research

Thirty-six percent of replications were statistically significant versus 97 percent of the originals; replication effects were half the size. Replication success tracked the strength of the original evidence. The reason single studies do not make this library.

What works partner preview

Graded interventions for each Atlas measure

A separate shelf with a separate standard. The library above reports what was measured. This shelf reports what has been tested as an intervention, and only as graded by three bodies: the Community Preventive Services Task Force (The Community Guide), the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, and Cochrane systematic reviews. Each entry carries the body's own grade in its own words, including "insufficient evidence" and "recommended against." Nothing ungraded goes on. This shelf is a partner preview until the data governance board's reviewer has signed off; then it opens to everyone.

Funder shelf partner preview

Funding programs, from their own pages

Each entry is a funding program, verified on the program's own page: who it says can apply, where, on what cycle, and the date we checked. No aggregator sites, no sample language, no grant advice. The library points to the program and the evidence and stops there. Pick a role above to see the programs that fit it first.